Franklin & Marshall College

Part II: Statewide Poll: Governor's Race

Prepared by:

Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Director
Center for Politics & Public Affairs
Millersville University

Mr. Berwood A. Yost, Director
Center for Opinion Research
Head Methodologist
Millersville University

The Keystone Poll is conducted by the Center for Politics & Public Affairs at Millersville University for Fox News, Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Daily News, the Harrisburg Patriot, and the Pittsburgh Tribune Review. The telephone survey was conducted April 10 - 15, 2002, among a random sample of 382 registered Democratic voters. The sample error for the total sample is plus or minus 4.7%. As with all opinion surveys, these results are also subject to non-sampling errors. Non-sampling errors are best defined as errors that arise from interviewing, questionnaire design, and data analysis. The poll was directed by Dr. G. Terry Madonna. Data analysis and quantitative and methodological work were done by Mr. Berwood Yost. A statement relative to sample design and methodology is available upon request.

Any use of this survey must indicate that it was conducted at Millersville University.

>Q1< Some people are registered to vote and many others are not. Are you currently registered to vote at your present address?

100% Yes

>Q2< Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or something else?

100% Democrat

>LIKE< Many people will vote in the upcoming primary election in May, however, many other people will NOT. What would you say are the chances of your voting in the upcoming election? Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50 you will vote, or don't you think that you will vote in the election?

63% Certain to vote
20% Probably will vote
9% 50-50 chance of voting
5% Will not vote
3% Don't know

>INTEREST< Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you have been very much interested, somewhat interested, or not very interested in following the political campaign so far this year?

30% Very much interested
51% Somewhat interested
19% Not very interested

I'd like to ask you a few questions about some people involved in politics today. Is your opinion of [INSERT NAME] favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?

>Q7< If the Democratic primary election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Robert Casey, Jr. and Ed Rendell, would you vote for:

38% Robert Casey, Jr.
37% Ed Rendell
25% Don't know [go to Q10]

>Q8< Are you absolutely certain you will vote for (INSERT CANDIDATE SELECTED IN Q9) in the election, or are you still making up your mind?

N=280

60% Certain
38% Still deciding
2% Don't know

>Q9< What is the main reason you plan to vote for (INSERT CANDIDATE)?

N=263

32% Political record (past achievements)
18% Supports candidate's issue
11% Likes personality, fair
8% Conflict concerning opposing candidate
7% Father's reputation (Casey)
7% Recognize name, heard about candidate through media
5% Don't know much about other candidate
3% Don't know
2% Need a change, need new governor
2% Knows a candidate personally, involved with campaign
2% General Positive
2% Nothing, no reason
1% Other

Which of the candidates for Governor, Ed Rendell or Robert Casey, Jr., do you think can do the best job of handling each of the following issues? Would Ed Rendell or Robert Casey, Jr., do a better job of

Which of the candidates for Governor, Ed Rendell or Robert Casey, Jr., do you think

>Q19< Have you seen any commercials for the candidates for Governor, or not?

63% Yes [goto Q20]
36% No
1% Don't know

Which candidate's advertisements have

N=239

>DEMO< I now have a few final questions for statistical purposes only. First

>CNTY< What is the name of the COUNTY you live in?

15% Philadelphia
17% Northeast
12% Allegheny
13% Southwest
8% Northwest
24% Central
12% Southeast

>AGE< What was your AGE on your last birthday?

5% 18-24
13% 25-34
19% 35-44
24% 45-54
15% 55-64
24% 65 over

>EDUC< What was the last grade level of schooling you have completed?

44% High school or less
30% Some college
26% College degree

>MAR< What is your CURRENT marital status?

25% Single, Never Married
55% Married
2% Separated
8% Divorced
11% Widow, Widower

>IDEO< Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative?

25% Liberal
39% Moderate
29% Conservative
8% Don't know

>REL< Do you consider yourself to be Catholic, Protestant, Jewish or something else?

41% Catholic
34% Protestant
3% Jewish
22% Something Else

>BAC< Do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist?

28% Yes
65% No
7% Don't know

>VET< Are you a military veteran?

15% Yes
84% No

>UNI< Do you or anyone in your household belong to a labor union?

25% Yes
74% No
1% Don't know

>TALK< Are you a frequent listener to political talk shows?

33% Yes
65% No
2% Don't know

>GUN1< Are you a gun owner?

28% Yes
72% No

>GUN2< Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose creating more laws that regulate gun ownership?

39% Strongly favor
19% Somewhat favor
17% Somewhat oppose
18% Strongly oppose
8% Do not know

>ABRT< Do you think that abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?

27% Legal under any circumstances
52% Legal under certain circumstances
17% Illegal in all circumstances
4% Do not know

>RACE< Which of the following categories best describes your racial background?

83% White
17% Non white

>INC1< And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above or below $30,000 per year?

30% Under $30,000
38% $30-50,000
32% Over $50,000

>REPORT< Would you be willing to speak to a reporter about your views on the Governor's race?

14% Yes
86% No

>DONE< Note Gender of respondent

35% Male
65% Female