Franklin & Marshall College

Pennsylvania Statewide Poll

Prepared by:

Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Director
Center for Politics & Public Affairs
Millersville University

Mr. Berwood A. Yost, Director
Center for Opinion Research
Head Methodologist
Millersville University

The Keystone Poll is conducted by the Center for Politics & Public Affairs at Millersville University for Fox News, Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Harrisburg Patriot.  The telephone survey was conducted April 5 - 8, 2001, among a random sample of 499 registered voters. The sample contained 199 Republicans, 228 Democrats, and 72 Independents and Others. The sample error for the total sample is plus or minus 4.4%. As with all opinion surveys, these results are also subject to non-sampling errors.  Non-sampling errors are best defined as errors that arise from interviewing, questionnaire design, and data analysis.  The poll was directed by Dr. G. Terry Madonna.  Data analysis and quantitative and methodological work were done by Mr. Berwood Yost.  A statement relative to sample design and methodology is available upon request.

Any use of this survey must indicate that it was conducted at Millersville University.

The latest Keystone Poll finds that the Democratic primary contest for U.S. Senator is generating little interest or garnering little attention from Democratic voters.  Less than one third of registered voters say they have been very interested in following this years political campaign.  In fact, less than one in four (22%) Democrats say they have talked to other people about the race or received literature from the campaigns about the race (21%).  Ron Klink, Tom Foley, and Allyson Schwartz, each command the support of a small number of voters, but most voters remain in the undecided column.  These numbers have changed little over the past month of campaigning.

Table 1 presents several different analyses of the primary numbers.  Even when voters are pushed to make a vote choice, two in five remain completely undecided.  Even among those voters who are nearly certain to turn out on election day, most remain undecided.

Table 1.  Voter Preferences, U.S. Senate Democratic Primary

Note: All represents all registered voters. Lean includes all registered voters, but asked initially undecided voters if they were leaning toward one candidate. Likely includes just those who are considered likely to vote.  Certain voters are those who say they are certain to vote and very interested in the campaign.
 
 

The large number of undecided voters is the result of the candidates being nearly unknown to registered Democrats.  Although the three top candidates have marginally reduced the proportion of Democrats who dont recognize their names since February, most voters just have not heard enough about the candidates to have formed an opinion.

Table 2.  Favorability Ratings of Democratic Candidates, February and March 2000

 Foley Favorable Unfavorable Undecided Dont Know
  March 20%   8%   24%   49%
  February   14%   6%   16%   64%
 Klink
  March 23%    8%   15%   55%
  February   13%   5%    10% 72%
 Schwartz
  March 15%    6%    14%    66%
  February 9%    3%    11%    77%
 

***FREQUENCIES AND QUESTION WORDING FOLLOW***

>Q3< Many people will vote in the upcoming primary election in April; however, many other people will NOT.  What would you say are the chances of your voting in the upcoming election?  Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50 you will vote, or don't you think that you will vote in the election?

   63% Certain to Vote
   21% Probably will Vote
   10% 50-50 Chance of Voting
4%   Will not Vote
2%   Don't Know
 
>Q4< Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns.  How about you?  Would you say that you have been very much interested, somewhat interested, or not very interested in following the political campaigns so far this year?

   31%  Very Much Interested
   52% Somewhat Interested
   16% Not Very Interested
1%  Don't Know
 

>Q10< If the Democratic primary election for US Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tom Foley, Allyson Schwartz, Ron Klink, Robert Rovner, Phil Berg, and Murray Levin, would you vote for...

   16% Tom Foley
   12% Allyson Schwartz
   17% Ron Klink
2% Robert Rovner
   <1% Phil Berg
1% Murray Levin
   52% Do not know  [GO TO QUESTION Q13]
 
>Q11<  Are you absolutely certain you will vote for (INSERT CANDIDATE SELECTED IN Q10) in the election, or are you still making up your mind?

N=207
 
   52% Certain
   45% Still making up mind
3% Don't Know
 
>Q12< What would you say is the main reason that you are planning to vote for (INSERT CANDIDATE SELECTED IN Q10)?

N=219

   16% Positive Personal Characteristic
   16% Best Known
  14% Specific Issue Position
  13% Character, Integrity
9% Don't Know
8% General Ideological Position
8% Other
5% Record
4% Experience
3% Change
2% Advertising
1% Endorsement
1% Negative Personal Characteristic of Opponent
 
>Q13<  As of today, do you lean more to (read list)

N=197
 
8% Tom Foley
4% Allyson Schwartz
7% Ron Klink
1% Robert Rovner
1% Phil Berg
0% Murray Levin
   79% Do not know
 
>Q14<  How have you been getting most of your news about the U.S. Senate race?

   64% Television
   22% Newspapers
6% Radio
1% Magazines
3% On-line
1% Other
3% Don't know
 
>Q15<  Have you (READ LIST) about the U.S. Senate primary campaign? Have you seen anything on television news?

   62% Yes
   35% No
3% Don't know
 
>Q16<  read anything in the newspaper?

   49% Yes
   49% No
2% Don't know
 
>Q17<  heard anything on the radio?

   33% Yes
   64% No
3% Don't know
 
>Q18<  talked to other people?

   22% Yes
   76% No
2% Don't know
 
>Q19<  received direct mail from the campaigns?

   21% Yes
   75% No
4% Don't know

>Q20<  been contacted by campaign staff people?

  4% Yes
   94% No
2% Don't know
 
>Q21<  seen a campaign advertisement on television?

   55% Yes
   43% No
2% Don't know
 
>Q22<  What do you remember most about what you have seen or heard?
 
47% Dont know
12% Issues
  7% Positive qualities
  7% Mudslinging, attacks
  5% More ads for one candidate than others
  5% Other
  4% Recognition of candidates
  3% Negative qualities
  3% Healthcare issues
  2% Unconvincing campaigns
  1% Received mailings
  1% Met a candidate personally
  1% Educational issues
  1% Clean campaign
  1% Record