Keystone Poll (May 4-8, 2002)
Part II: Statewide Poll: Frequency Report
Prepared by:
Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Director
Center for Politics & Public Affairs
Millersville University
Mr. Berwood A. Yost, Director
Center for Opinion Research
Head Methodologist
Millersville University
The Keystone Poll is conducted by the Center for Politics & Public Affairs at Millersville University for Fox News, Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Daily News, the Harrisburg Patriot, and the Pittsburgh Tribune Review. The telephone survey was conducted May 4 - 8, 2002, among a random sample of 406 registered Democratic voters. The sample error for the total sample is plus or minus 4.9%. As with all opinion surveys, these results are also subject to non-sampling errors. Non-sampling errors are best defined as errors that arise from interviewing, questionnaire design, and data analysis. The poll was directed by Dr. G. Terry Madonna. Data analysis and quantitative and methodological work were done by Mr. Berwood Yost. A statement relative to sample design and methodology is available upon request.
Any use of this survey must indicate that it was conducted at Millersville University.
>Q1< Some
people are registered to vote and many others are not. Are you currently
registered to vote at your present address?
April
(N=382)
May (N=406)
100%100%Yes
>Q2< Are you
currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or
something else?
April May
100%100% Democrat
>LIKE< Many
people will vote in the upcoming primary election in May, however, many
other people will NOT. What would you say are the chances of your voting
in the upcoming election? Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote,
are the chances 50-50 you will vote, or don't you think that you will vote
in the election?
April May
63% 67% Certain to vote
20% 17% Probably will vote
9%
8% 50-50 chance of voting
5%
5% Will not vote
3%
2% Don't know
>INTEREST<
Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about
you? Would you say that you have been very much interested, somewhat
interested, or not very interested in following the political campaign so
far this year?
April May
30% 34% Very much
interested
51% 49% Somewhat interested
19% 17% Not very interested
I'd like to ask you a few questions about some people involved in politics today. Is your opinion of [INSERT NAME] favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Undecided |
Haven't heard |
Don't know |
||||||
|
April |
May |
April |
May |
April |
May |
April |
May |
April |
May |
|
|
Robert Casey Jr. |
28% |
28% |
12% |
21% |
30% |
30% |
22% |
17% |
9% |
4% |
|
Ed Rendell |
36% |
37% |
17% |
16% |
26% |
28% |
13% |
16% |
8% |
3% |
>Q7< If the
Democratic primary election for governor were being held today and the
candidates were Robert Casey, Jr. and Ed Rendell, would you vote for:
April May
38% 32% Robert Casey,
Jr.
37% 42% Ed Rendell
25% 26% Don't know [go to
Q10]
>Q8< Are you
absolutely certain you will vote for (INSERT CANDIDATE SELECTED IN Q9) in
the election, or are you still making up your mind?
April (N=280 May (N=296)
60% 73% Certain
38% 26% Still
deciding
2% 1% Don't
know
>Q9< What is
the main reason you plan to vote for (INSERT CANDIDATE)?
April (N=263) May (N=290)
32% 32%
Political record (past achievements)
18% 20% Supports
candidate's issue
11% 6% Likes
personality, fair
8% 11% Conflict
concerning opposing candidate
7% 5% Father's
reputation (Casey)
7% 6% Recognize
name, heard about candidate through media
5% 1% Don't know
much about other candidate
3% 3% Don't know
2% 1% Need a change, need new
governor
2% 3% Knows a
candidate personally, involved with campaign
2% 6% General Positive
2% 0% Nothing,
no reason
1% 6% Other
Which of the candidates for Governor, Ed Rendell or Robert Casey, Jr., do you think can do the best job of handling each of the following issues? Would Ed Rendell or Robert Casey, Jr., do a better job of
|
Ed Rendell |
Robert Casey, Jr. |
Don't know |
||||
|
April |
May |
April |
May |
April |
May |
|
|
Reforming property taxes |
26% |
38% |
24% |
21% |
50% |
41% |
|
Improving health care for senior citizens |
28% |
33% |
34% |
33% |
38% |
34% |
|
Dealing with the problems of our public schools |
29% |
34% |
30% |
32% |
41% |
34% |
|
Creating jobs |
35% |
39% |
26% |
24% |
39% |
38% |
|
Protecting working families |
32% |
32% |
29% |
30% |
39% |
38% |
Which of the candidates for Governor, Ed Rendell or Robert Casey, Jr., do you think
|
Ed Rendell |
Robert Casey, Jr. |
Don't know |
||||
|
April |
May |
April |
May |
April |
May |
|
|
Has the best vision for Pennsylvanias future |
34% |
38% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
30% |
|
Has the most knowledge and experience in government |
44% |
53% |
25% |
20% |
31% |
27% |
|
Is the most trustworthy |
22% |
28% |
30% |
30% |
48% |
42% |
|
Has the strongest personal character |
35% |
40% |
30% |
29% |
34% |
31% |
>Q19< Have you
seen any commercials for the candidates for Governor, or not?
April May
63% 80% Yes [go to
Q20]
36% 19% No
1%
1% Don't know
Which
candidate's advertisements have
April (N=239) May (N=321)
|
Ed Rendell |
Robert Casey, Jr. |
Don't know |
||||
|
April |
May |
April |
May |
April |
May |
|
|
Talked most about the issues you are interested in |
27% |
34% |
32% |
26% |
41% |
41% |
|
Been the most negative |
25% |
23% |
33% |
51% |
42% |
26% |
|
Been the most unfair |
20% |
16% |
24% |
39% |
57% |
46% |
>DEMO< I now
have a few final questions for statistical purposes only. First
>CNTY< What is the name of the COUNTY you live in?
April May
15% 18% Philadelphia
17% 12% Northeast
12% 12% Allegheny
13% 13% Southwest
8%
7% Northwest
24% 22% Central
12% 15% Southeast
>AGE< What
was your AGE on your last birthday?
April May
5%
8% 18-24
13%
9% 25-34
19% 20% 35-44
24% 22% 45-54
15% 16% 55-64
24% 24% 65 over
>EDUC< What
was the last grade level of schooling you have completed?
April May
44% 48% High school or
less
30% 21% Some college
26% 31% College degree
>MAR< What is
your CURRENT marital status?
April May
25% 24% Single, Never
Married
55% 53% Married
2%
2% Separated
8%
8% Divorced
11% 13% Widow, Widower
>IDEO<
Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a
moderate, or a conservative?
April May
25% 27% Liberal
39% 43% Moderate
29% 20% Conservative
8%
9% Don't know
>REL< Do you
consider yourself to be Catholic, Protestant, Jewish or something else?
April May
41% 39% Catholic
34% 29% Protestant
3%
5% Jewish
22% 28% Something Else
>BAC< Do you
consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist?
April May
28% 31% Yes
65% 66% No
7%
3% Don't know
>VET< Are
you a military veteran?
April May
15% 15% Yes
84% 85% No
>UNI< Do you
or anyone in your household belong to a labor union?
April May
25% 28% Yes
74% 71% No
1%
1% Don't know
>TALK< Are
you a frequent listener to political talk shows?
April May
33% 35% Yes
65% 64% No
2%
1% Don't know
>GUN1< Are
you a gun owner?
April May
28% 26% Yes
72% 74% No
>GUN2<
Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose creating more laws that
regulate gun ownership?
April May
39% 39% Strongly favor
19% 22% Somewhat favor
17% 10% Somewhat oppose
18% 17% Strongly oppose
8% 12% Do not know
>ABRT< Do you
think that abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal only
under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?
April May
27% 31% Legal under any
circumstances
52% 49% Legal under certain
circumstances
17% 17% Illegal in all
circumstances
4%
3% Do not know
>RACE< Which
of the following categories best describes your racial background?
April May
83% 79% White
17% 21% Non white
>INC1< And,
just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income
is above or below $30,000 per year?
April May
30% 33% Under $30,000
38% 28% $30-50,000
32% 39% Over $50,000
>DONE< Note
Gender of respondent
April May
35% 36% Male
65%
64% Female
| BACK TO SURVEY |
