Keystone Poll (Oct. 25-28, 1996)
Pennsylvania Statewide Poll
Clinton Continues to Hold a Sizable Lead in Keystone Statep
The latest Keystone Poll of Pennsylvania voters shows that Bill Clinton continues to hold a large lead over Republican challenger Bob Dole, 48% to 36%. Support for Ross Perot remains low, as only one in fourteen voters (7%) supports his candidacy. The number of voters who support the President has remained constant since September, while the number of voters who support Bob Dole has seen a slight increase since September as Republicans have started to return to the ticket. Both candidates have increased their support among party faithful over the past month--Dole's support among partisans has increased by 10 percent (from 61% to 67%) while Clinton's has increased by 6 percent (from 72% to 76%). Dole now receives more support than Clinton among men (43% to 40%), although Clinton maintains his large lead among women (52% to 32%).
Clinton supporters say they plan to vote for the President because of his record (29%), his political ideology (21%), negative attitudes toward Bob Dole (20%), and his position on specific issues (11%). Dole supporters say that their negative opinion of the President (26%), and Bob Dole's character (17%), ideology (15%), and party affiliation (14%) are the main reasons they plan to support the Republican candidate.
The increasingly negative tone of the campaign has harmed both candidates. The President is still viewed favorably by state voters. Almost half (48%) of the state's voters have a favorable opinion of the President, which is virtually unchanged since September. However, the proportion of voters who view him unfavorably has increased from 37% to 41%. Bob Dole's unfavorable ratings have also gone up in the past month, from 44% to 49%. Only a third (34%) of the state's likely voters have a favorable opinion of Dole.
***SURVEY ITEMS AND FREQUENCIES FOLLOW***
If the presidential election were held today and the Republican candidates were Bob Dole and Jack Kemp, the Democratic candidates were Bill Clinton and Al Gore, and the Reform Party candidates were Ross Perot and Pat Choate, would you vote for:
4/96 8/96 9/96 10/96 Clinton/Gore 41% 45% 49% 48% Dole/Kemp 27% 34% 33% 36% Perot/Choate 16% 10% 6% 7% Don't Know 15% 11% 12% 10%
I'd like to ask you a few questions about some people involved in Pennsylvania politics. Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bill Clinton yet to have an opinion?
Not
Fav Fav Und DK
9/95 40% 38% 19% 3%
4/96 45% 33% 19% 3%
7/96 44% 35% 19% 3%
9/96 47% 37% 15% 2%
10/96 48% 41% 10% 1%
Is your opinion of Bob Dole favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bob Dole yet to have an opinion?
Not
Fav Fav Und DK
4/96 19% 43% 31% 8%
7/96 23% 39% 27% 11%
9/96 31% 44% 22% 3%
10/96 34% 49% 15% 2%
Presidential Race: Cross Tabulations
Presidential Horse Race
Dole,Kemp Clinton, Perot, DK
Gore Choate
Row % Row % Row % Row %
Party Registration
Republican 67% 19% 4% 11%
Democrat 9% 76% 7% 7%
Independent, Other 22% 42% 16% 20%
Likelihood of Voting
Certain to Vote 38% 48% 6% 9%
Probably will Vote 19% 47% 15% 19%
County of residence
PHILADELPHIA 14% 70% 5% 11%
NORTHEAST 34% 47% 9% 9%
ALLEGHENY 28% 58% 3% 12%
SOUTHWEST 39% 39% 13% 10%
NORTHWEST 34% 51% 5% 10%
CENTRAL 45% 38% 9% 9%
SOUTHEAST 43% 43% 3% 11%
Respondent Educational
Attainment
High School or Less 31% 48% 10% 11%
Some College, Tech
Degree 37% 47% 5% 11%
College Graduate or
Postgraduate 41% 47% 3% 9%
Respondent ideological
leanings
Liberal 8% 75% 7% 9%
Moderate 27% 56% 7% 10%
Conservative 61% 25% 5% 9%
Born again or
fundamentalist
Yes 45% 41% 5% 8%
No 32% 51% 7% 10%
Child in home
Yes 40% 46% 5% 10%
No 34% 48% 7% 10%
Listen to talk radio
Yes 41% 45% 4% 10%
No 31% 50% 9% 10%
Gun owner
Yes 44% 36% 11% 8%
No 32% 53% 4% 11%
Marital Status
Single 22% 59% 10% 9%
Married 43% 43% 5% 10%
Separated 13% 60% 13% 13%
Divorced 26% 49% 14% 12%
Widowed 33% 52% 3% 12%
Race
Nonwhite 8% 85% 1% 5%
White 39% 43% 7% 11%
Income
Under $15,000 23% 58% 15% 5%
$15-$30,000 31% 46% 13% 10%
$30-40,000 33% 50% 6% 11%
$40-50,000 37% 50% 4% 9%
$50-75,000 42% 46% 5% 7%
Over $75,000 52% 39% 1% 8%
Gender
Male 43% 40% 8% 9%
Female 32% 52% 5% 11%
AGERANGE
18-24 26% 49% 13% 11%
25-34 37% 47% 12% 3%
35-44 39% 48% 3% 9%
45-54 27% 53% 6% 14%
55-64 46% 40% 5% 8%
65 and over 38% 44% 5% 13%
The Keystone Poll is conducted by the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University for KYW-TV3, Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Harrisburg Patriot. The telephone survey was conducted October 25-28, 1996, among a random sample of adults living in Pennsylvania. Screening interviews were completed with 999 adults. Of those screened, 767 were registered to vote and 695 were determined to be likely voters. Among the 695 likely voters, 312 were Republicans, 327 were Democrats, and 56 were independents or others. The sample error for the total sample is plus or minus 3.7%, but is larger for subgroups.
Any use of this survey must indicate that it was conducted at Millersville University.
