Keystone Poll (Sept. 28-Oct. 1, 2000)
Pennsylvania Statewide Poll: President and U.S. Senate
Prepared by:
Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Director
Center for Politics & Public Affairs
Millersville University
Mr. Berwood A. Yost, Director
Center for Opinion Research
Head Methodologist
Millersville University
The Keystone Poll is conducted by the Center for Politics & Public Affairs at Millersville University for Fox News, Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Harrisburg Patriot. The telephone survey was conducted April 5 - 8, 2001, among a random sample of 499 registered voters. The sample contained 199 Republicans, 228 Democrats, and 72 Independents and Others. The sample error for the total sample is plus or minus 4.4%. As with all opinion surveys, these results are also subject to non-sampling errors. Non-sampling errors are best defined as errors that arise from interviewing, questionnaire design, and data analysis. The poll was directed by Dr. G. Terry Madonna. Data analysis and quantitative and methodological work were done by Mr. Berwood Yost. A statement relative to sample design and methodology is available upon request.
Any use of this survey must indicate that it was conducted at Millersville University.
| Register Voters | Likely Voters | Certain Voters | |
| President | |||
| Gore | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| Bush | 36% | 37% | 39% |
| Nader | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Buchanan | 1% | 1% | - |
| Don't Know | 11% | 11% | 9% |
| U.S. Senate | |||
| Santorum | 43% | 43% | 45% |
| Klink | 24% | 25% | 28% |
| Don't Know | 32% | 32% | 27% |
FREQUENCIES
1. Some people are registered to vote and many others are not. Are you currently registered to vote at your present address?
100% Yes
2. Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or something else?
42% Republican
48% Democrat
10% Independent/Other
3. Many people will vote in the upcoming general election in November; however, many other people will NOT. What would you say are the chances of your voting in the upcoming election? Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50 you will vote, or dont you think that you will vote in the election?
80% Certain to Vote
13% Probably will Vote
4% 50/50 Chance of Voting
2% Will not Vote
1% Don't Know
4. Some people dont pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you have been very much interested, somewhat interested, or not very interested in following the political campaigns so far this year?
43% Very Much Interested
47% Somewhat Interested
10% Not Very Interested
<1% Don't Know
5. I'd like to ask you a few questions about some people involved in politics today. Is your opinion of RON KLINK favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about RON KLINK to have an opinion?
13% Favorable
13% Unfavorable
16% Undecided
49% Have Not Heard
9% Dont Know
6. Is your opinion of RICK SANTORUM favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about RICK SANTORUM to have an opinion?
40% Favorable
19% Unfavorable
20% Undecided
17% Have Not Heard
5% Dont Know
7. Is your opinion of AL GORE favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about AL GORE to have an opinion?
46% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
18% Undecided
2% Have Not Heard
1% Dont Know
8. Is your opinion of GEORGE BUSH favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about GEORGE BUSH to have an opinion?
36% Favorable
39% Unfavorable
20% Undecided
3% Have Not Heard
2% Dont Know
9. If the election for President were being held today, would you vote for
49% Al Gore, the Democrat
36% George W. Bush, the Republican
2% Ralph Nader, The Green Party
1% Pat Buchanan, The Reform Party
11% Dont Know
10. Are you absolutely certain you will vote for [INSERT CANDIDATE SELECTED IN Q9] in the election, or are you still making up your mind?
N=521
74% Certain
25% Still deciding
1% Dont know
11. [ASK ONLY IF VOTING FOR BUSH OR GORE] What is the main reason you plan to vote for [George Bush/Al Gore]? Is it because you like him as a person, you prefer his stand on some issues, you dislike the other candidate, you usually vote for [Republicans/Democrats], or is there some other reason you plan to vote for [George Bush/Al Gore]?
N=478
15% Like Personally
53% Issue Position
15% Dislike Opponent
8% Prefer Party
5% Other
3% Dont Know
11a. What is it you most like about him?
N=73
38% Relates well to voters/personable
19% Past policies
12% Character
12% Other
9% Honest
4% Achievements
2% Intelligence
3% Dont know
11b. Which of his issue positions are most important?
N=244
16% Education
15% Elderly Health Care
15% Other
13% Abortion
10% Social Security
6% Tax Cut
4% Environment
4% All of Them
3% Strong Party Ideal
3% Dont Know
2% Military Defense
2% Gun Ownership
2% Economy
2% Morals
1% Welfare
1% English Language for U.S.
1% Unions
1% Government Reform
<1% None
<1% Taxes
<1% Childcare
11c. What do you dislike about [George Bush/Al Gore]?
N=66
23% Other
21% Character
12% Party Ideology
11% Policies
9% Poor Past Performance
7% Fanatical Views
6% Clinton-Gore
3% Work Healthcare Platform
3% Position on Education
2% Intelligence
1% Economic Decline
1% Untrustworthy
1% Dont Know
12. [ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTION ONLY IF RESPONDED DONT KNOW WHO THEY WILL VOTE FOR IN QUESTION 9]: As of today, do you lean more to
N=67
21% Al Gore, the Democrat
20% George W. Bush, the Republican
4% Ralph Nader, The Green Party
6% Pat Buchanan, The Reform Party
49% Dont Know
Q13. [ASK THE FOLLOWING ONLY OF THOSE WHO DONT KNOW WHO THEY WILL VOTE FOR IN QUESITON 12]: When you finally choose a candidate for President, what do you think will be most important in helping you decide. Will it be because you like him as a person, you prefer his stand on some issues, you dislike the other candidate, you usually vote for [Republicans/Democrats], or will something else be most important?
N=35
3% Like Personally
63% Issue positions
5% Prefer party
9% Other
19% Dont Know
14. Regardless of who you plan to vote for, do you believe that Al Gore is qualified to be President?
78% Yes
17% No
5% Dont Know
14a. [IF NO]: Why not?
N=77
32% Untrustworthy
15% Issues he is addressing/Lacks control of issues
10% Character
9% Lacks experience
7% Tactics
7% Bad past performance
6% Other
5% Do Not Know
4% Too liberal
4% Unpredictable
2% Party
1% Poor speaker
15. Regardless of who you plan to vote for, do you believe that George Bush is qualified to be President?
66% Yes
28% No
6% Dont Know
15a. [IF NO]: Why not?
N=137
26% Lacks experience
14% Other
13% Issues he is addressing/Lacks control of issues
11% Bad past performance
11% Character
6% Untrustworthy
6% Lacks intellect
5% Tactics
3% Do Not Know
2% Unpredictable
1% Too liberal
1% Party
1% Too conservative
1% Policies
16. If the election for Pennsylvanias US Senator were being held today, would you vote for
24% Ron Klink, the Democrat
43% Rick Santorum, the Republican
32% Dont Know
17. Are you absolutely certain you will vote for [INSERT CANDIDATE SELECTED ABOVE] in the election, or are you still making up your mind?
N=384
71% Certain
28% Still deciding
1% Dont know
18. [ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTION ONLY IF RESPONDED DONT KNOW WHO THEY WILL VOTE FOR IN QUESTION 16]: As of today, do you lean more to
N=177
10% Ron Klink, the Democrat
17% Rick Santorum, the Republican
72% Dont Know
19. Thinking about the last few state and national elections, which best describes how you voted: straight Democrat, mostly Democrat, a few more Democrats than Republicans, about equally for both parties, a few more Republicans than Democrats, mostly Republican, or straight Republican?
14% Straight Democrat
22% Mostly Democrat
7% A Few More Democrats than Republicans
19% About Equally for Both Parties
7% A Few More Republicans than
17% Mostly Republican
9% Straight Republican
6% Don't Know
20. In politics, as of today, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
17% Strong Republican
14% Not Very Strong Republican
7% Lean Republican
10% Independent
11% Lean Democrat
13% Not Very Strong Democrat
23% Strong Democrat
5% Dont Know
21. What do you think is the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today?
26% Education
14% Unemployment/Economy
12% Do Not Know
11% Health Care
9% Other
8% Taxes
4% Crime/Drugs
2% Environment
2% Roads
2% Welfare
2% Government
2% Population, Sprawl
2% Social Security
2% Fuel Prices
1% Nothing
1% Transportation
1% Racism
22. What do you think is the most important problem facing you and your family today?
23% Health Care
12% Taxes
11% Education
11% Other
10% Unemployment/Economy
9% Do Not Know
6% Social Security
6% Nothing
5% Money
2% Government
2% Crime/Drugs
1% Population, Sprawl
<1% Environment
<1% Roads
<1% Welfare
<1% Transportation
I now have a few final questions for statistical purposes only.
CNTY. What is the name of the county you live in?
7% Philadelphia
12% Northeast
12% Allegheny
12% Southwest
10% Northwest
26% Central
21% Southeast
AGE. What was your AGE on your last birthday?
5% 18-24
16% 25-34
20% 35-44
20% 45-54
14% 55-64
24% 65 and over
EDUC. What was the last grade level of schooling you have completed?
37% High School or Less
29% Some College
34% College Degree
MAR. What is your CURRENT marital status? NOTE: If SINGLE ASK, "Have you ever been married?"
15% Single, Never Married
65% Married
1% Separated
7% Divorced
11% Widow, Widower
IDEO. Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative?
20% Liberal
41% Moderate
31% Conservative
9% Do not know
REL. Do you consider yourself to be Catholic, Protestant, Jewish or something else?
35% Catholic
43% Protestant
3% Jewish
18% Something Else
2% Do not know
BAC. Do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist?
31% Yes
59% No
9% Do not know
VET. Are you a military veteran?
11% Yes
89% No
TALK. Are you a frequent listener to political talk shows?
41% Yes
57% No
2% Do not know
GUN1. Are you a gun owner?
27% Yes
72% No
1% Do not know
GUN2. Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose creating more laws that regulate gun ownership? Is that strongly or somewhat [favor/oppose]?
39% Strongly favor
20% Somewhat favor
12% Somewhat oppose
20% Strongly oppose
9% Do not know
ABRT. Do you think that abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?
26% Legal under any circumstances
50% Legal under certain circumstances
19% Illegal in all circumstances
6% Do not know
RACE. Which of the following categories best describes your racial background? Are you ?
93% White
8% Nonwhite
INC1. And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above or below $30,000 per year?
28% Under $30,000
33% $30,000 - $50,000
38% Over $75,000
DONE. Note Gender of the RESPONDENT:
37% Male
63% Female
Tables
| Who would you vote for | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore Democrat | George Bush Republican | DK | ||
| Col % | Col % | Col % | ||
| Main reason for vote | Like Personally | 19% | 10% | 33% |
| Issue Position | 48% | 60% | 38% | |
| Dislike Opponent | 14% | 17% | ||
| Prefer Party | 10% | 6% | ||
| Other | 6% | 4% | ||
| DK | 3% | 3% | 29% | |
| Center for Opinion Research
and Center for Politics & Public Affairs Millersville University |
Tables
| Who would you vote for | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore Democrat | George Bush Republican | DK | ||
| Col % | Col % | Col % | ||
| What is it you most like | Relates well to voter personable | 34% | 34% | 100% |
| Past Policies | 25% | 9% | ||
| Achievements | 5% | 5% | ||
| Intelligence | 4% | |||
| Honest | 2% | 28% | ||
| Character | 11% | 18% | ||
| Other | 15% | 6% | ||
| DK | 5% | |||
| Which position is most important | Education | 16% | 15% | 36% |
| Elderly Health Care | 21% | 9% | 36% | |
| Abortion | 11% | 15% | 28% | |
| Social Security | 12% | 8% | ||
| Military Defense | 5% | |||
| English Language for US | 1% | |||
| Environment | 7% | |||
| Strong Party Ideal | 1% | 5% | ||
| Gun Ownership | 2% | 3% | ||
| Tax Cut | 4% | 8% | ||
| Economy | 3% | 1% | ||
| Taxes | 1% | |||
| Welfare | 1% | |||
| Morals | 1% | 2% | ||
| Childcare | 1% | |||
| All of them | 3% | 5% | ||
| Unions | 2% | |||
| Govt reform | 2% | |||
| None | 1% | |||
| Other | 14% | 15% | ||
| DK | 2% | 5% | ||
| What do you dislike about opponent | Economic decline | 3% | ||
| Weak healthcare platform | 3% | 3% | ||
| Party Ideology | 7% | 18% | ||
| Fanatical views | 7% | 7% | ||
| Policies | 12% | 10% | ||
| Poor past preformance | 9% | 9% | ||
| Position on Education | 6% | |||
| Intelligence | 3% | |||
| Character | 23% | 17% | ||
| Clinton-Gore | 13% | |||
| Untrustworthy | 3% | |||
| Other | 25% | 20% | ||
| DK | 3% | |||
| Center for Opinion Research
and Center for Politics & Public Affairs Millersville University |
Tables
| Who would you vote for | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore Democrat | George Bush Republican | Ralph Nader Green Party | Pat Buchanan Reform | DK | ||
| Row % | Row % | Row % | Row % | Row % | ||
| Party Registration | Republican | 20% | 64% | 3% | 0% | 12% |
| Democrat | 75% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 10% | |
| Other | 45% | 30% | 5% | 3% | 17% | |
| Likelihood of Voting in General Election | Certain to Vote | 49% | 38% | 2% | 1% | 10% |
| Probably will Vote | 50% | 35% | 2% | 1% | 11% | |
| 50 50 chance of voting | 52% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 23% | |
| Will not Vote | 43% | 23% | 13% | 20% | ||
| DK | 53% | 21% | 26% | |||
| County | Philadelphia | 76% | 14% | 2% | 8% | |
| Northeast | 56% | 36% | 8% | |||
| Allegheny | 50% | 43% | 1% | 5% | ||
| Southwest | 51% | 24% | 5% | 3% | 17% | |
| Northwest | 49% | 45% | 2% | 5% | ||
| Central | 39% | 42% | 4% | 2% | 13% | |
| Southeast | 45% | 36% | 2% | 1% | 16% | |
| Last grade of school | High School or Less | 47% | 37% | 3% | 1% | 13% |
| Some College | 47% | 38% | 3% | 1% | 11% | |
| College Degree | 54% | 34% | 1% | 1% | 10% | |
| Marital Status | Single | 48% | 34% | 3% | 2% | 13% |
| Married | 46% | 40% | 2% | 1% | 11% | |
| Separated | 62% | 27% | 11% | |||
| Divorced | 67% | 18% | 2% | 5% | 9% | |
| Widow(er) | 57% | 28% | 3% | 12% | ||
| Political Orientation | Liberal | 76% | 12% | 2% | 10% | |
| Moderate | 56% | 28% | 3% | 1% | 12% | |
| Conservative | 21% | 66% | 2% | 2% | 10% | |
| DK | 62% | 20% | 2% | 16% | ||
| Religion | Catholic | 53% | 34% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Protestant | 40% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 11% | |
| Jewish | 72% | 11% | 6% | 11% | ||
| Something Else | 58% | 26% | 4% | 1% | 11% | |
| DK | 70% | 30% | ||||
| Are you Born Again or Fundamentalist | Yes | 39% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 10% |
| No | 53% | 32% | 2% | 1% | 12% | |
| DK | 56% | 27% | 4% | 14% | ||
| Military Veteran | Yes | 39% | 50% | 1% | 3% | 7% |
| No | 51% | 34% | 2% | 1% | 12% | |
| Listen to Political Talk Shows | Yes | 49% | 40% | 1% | 0% | 10% |
| No | 49% | 34% | 3% | 1% | 13% | |
| DK | 63% | 26% | 10% | |||
| Gun Owner | Yes | 39% | 50% | 3% | 1% | 7% |
| No | 53% | 31% | 2% | 1% | 13% | |
| DK | 36% | 64% | ||||
| Favor or Oppose Gun Laws | Strongly favor | 64% | 22% | 2% | 12% | |
| Somewhat favor | 53% | 32% | 2% | 13% | ||
| Somewhat oppose | 32% | 52% | 3% | 2% | 12% | |
| Strongly oppose | 28% | 60% | 2% | 3% | 7% | |
| DK | 46% | 34% | 3% | 2% | 14% | |
| Abortion | Legal under any circumstances | 59% | 22% | 4% | 14% | |
| Legal under certain cirsumstances | 47% | 40% | 1% | 1% | 11% | |
| Illegal in all circumstances | 36% | 52% | 3% | 3% | 7% | |
| DK | 64% | 14% | 3% | 20% | ||
| Racial Background | White | 47% | 38% | 2% | 1% | 12% |
| Nonwhite | 83% | 13% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Income above or below | Under $30,000 | 45% | 35% | 4% | 1% | 14% |
| $30 - $50,000 | 53% | 34% | 1% | 1% | 11% | |
| Over $75,000 | 52% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 5% | |
| Gender | Male | 43% | 44% | 3% | 2% | 9% |
| Female | 53% | 31% | 2% | 0% | 13% | |
| AGERANGE | 18-24 | 35% | 46% | 6% | 13% | |
| 25-34 | 60% | 27% | 2% | 11% | ||
| 35-44 | 53% | 34% | 1% | 2% | 10% | |
| 45-54 | 47% | 36% | 3% | 2% | 11% | |
| 55-64 | 52% | 38% | 10% | |||
| 65 and over | 43% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 13% | |
| Center for Opinion Research
and Center for Politics & Public Affairs Millersville University |
Tables
| Who would you vote for US Senator | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Klink Democrat | Rick Santorum Republican | DK | ||
| Row % | Row % | Row % | ||
| Party Registration | Republican | 7% | 67% | 26% |
| Democrat | 40% | 24% | 36% | |
| Other | 22% | 38% | 40% | |
| Likelihood of Voting in General Election | Certain to Vote | 26% | 44% | 30% |
| Probably will Vote | 20% | 36% | 44% | |
| 50 50 chance of voting | 18% | 43% | 40% | |
| Will not Vote | 12% | 53% | 35% | |
| DK | 74% | 26% | ||
| County | Philadelphia | 35% | 18% | 46% |
| Northeast | 21% | 42% | 37% | |
| Allegheny | 29% | 48% | 23% | |
| Southwest | 36% | 37% | 27% | |
| Northwest | 25% | 49% | 26% | |
| Central | 14% | 53% | 34% | |
| Southeast | 23% | 42% | 34% | |
| Last grade of school | High School or Less | 25% | 45% | 29% |
| Some College | 21% | 44% | 35% | |
| College Degree | 27% | 41% | 32% | |
| Marital Status | Single | 26% | 37% | 38% |
| Married | 23% | 46% | 31% | |
| Separated | 24% | 35% | 41% | |
| Divorced | 31% | 41% | 27% | |
| Widow(er) | 28% | 36% | 36% | |
| Political Orientation | Liberal | 51% | 21% | 28% |
| Moderate | 25% | 39% | 36% | |
| Conservative | 8% | 67% | 26% | |
| DK | 25% | 26% | 50% | |
| Religion | Catholic | 25% | 45% | 30% |
| Protestant | 21% | 48% | 31% | |
| Jewish | 49% | 11% | 40% | |
| Something Else | 28% | 36% | 37% | |
| DK | 48% | 10% | 42% | |
| Are you Born Again or Fundamentalist | Yes | 17% | 51% | 31% |
| No | 29% | 40% | 31% | |
| DK | 16% | 36% | 48% | |
| Military Veteran | Yes | 36% | 48% | 15% |
| No | 23% | 43% | 34% | |
| Listen to Political Talk Shows | Yes | 28% | 44% | 27% |
| No | 22% | 43% | 36% | |
| DK | 18% | 45% | 37% | |
| Gun Owner | Yes | 20% | 54% | 26% |
| No | 26% | 39% | 35% | |
| DK | 36% | 64% | ||
| Favor or Oppose Gun Laws | Strongly favor | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Somewhat favor | 23% | 42% | 35% | |
| Somewhat oppose | 14% | 59% | 27% | |
| Strongly oppose | 14% | 56% | 30% | |
| DK | 21% | 33% | 46% | |
| Abortion | Legal under any circumstances | 28% | 33% | 38% |
| Legal under certain cirsumstances | 26% | 46% | 28% | |
| Illegal in all circumstances | 16% | 54% | 30% | |
| DK | 21% | 31% | 48% | |
| Racial Background | White | 24% | 45% | 31% |
| Nonwhite | 34% | 20% | 46% | |
| Income above or below | Under $30,000 | 22% | 44% | 35% |
| $30 - $50,000 | 25% | 40% | 35% | |
| Over $75,000 | 25% | 50% | 25% | |
| Gender | Male | 27% | 47% | 26% |
| Female | 23% | 41% | 36% | |
| AGERANGE | 18-24 | 23% | 41% | 36% |
| 25-34 | 21% | 41% | 38% | |
| 35-44 | 19% | 37% | 44% | |
| 45-54 | 26% | 48% | 26% | |
| 55-64 | 29% | 45% | 26% | |
| 65 and over | 27% | 47% | 26% | |
| Center for Opinion Research
and Center for Politics & Public Affairs Millersville University |
