Pennsylvania Presidential Elections: 1996-2000
October 2000
The 2000 presidential election in Pennsylvania is beginning to look very much like the 1996 election. An examination of key demographic groups and the patterns of regional voting indicate that, as of the early October 2000 Keystone Poll, Al Gore's support is similar to the coalition forged by Bill Clinton in 1996.
DEMOGRAPHICS
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Clinton clearly won women voters 53-57 percent, and Gore leads 53-31 percent. Clinton swept single women voters, 60-30 percent, while Gore leads 48-34 percent.
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Voters whose income ranges between $30,000 and $50,000, many of whom are high school graduates or less, are considered an important swing voting block. Clinton carried this income cohort, 49-39 percent, while Gore maintains a 53-34 edge.
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Senior citizens divide their votes this year about the way they did in 1996. Clinton and Dole split the vote in 1996, 48-46 percent. Gore and Bush are close at 43-40 percent.
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About one-third of the electorate in Pennsylvania is Catholic, many of whom are swing voters. Clinton carried the Catholic vote, 53-36 percent, and Gore does the same, 53-34 percent.
PENNSYLVANIA KEY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORIES
|
1996 VNS Exit Poll Clinton/Dole |
October 2000 Keystone Poll Gore/Bush |
|
| % % | % % | |
| Gender | ||
| Men | 47-42 | 43-44 |
| Women | 53-37 | 53-31 |
| Single Women | 60-30 | 48-34 |
| Race | ||
| White | 46-43 | 47-38 |
| Black | 88-9 | 83-13 |
| Income | ||
| 30-50K | 49-39 | 53-34 |
| Age | ||
| 45-59 | 53-36 | 47-36 |
| Over 65 | 48-46 | 43-40 |
| Party | ||
| Democrat | 80-13 | 75-13 |
| Republican | 17-74 | 20-64 |
| Religion | ||
| Protestant | 43-49 | 40-45 |
| Catholic | 53-36 | 53-34 |
REGIONS
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Clinton's biggest vote advantage came from his smashing victory in Philadelphia, 77-16 percent. Gore is replicating that accomplishment, 76-14 percent.
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The Philadelphia suburbs were won by Clinton 47-42 percent, and Gore leads there by 45-36 percent.
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As expected, Clinton held Allegheny (Pittsburgh) and the southwestern counties, 53-38 percent and 49-38 percent, respectively. Gore, at the beginning of October, leads there 50-43 percent and 51-24 percent, respectively.
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Except for the central region, the Gore strength approximates the Clinton victory in the northeast and the northwest.
PENNSYLVANIA KEY REGIONAL CATEGORIES
| 1996 Actual Vote Clinton/Dole |
October 2000 Keystone Poll Gore/Bush |
|
| % % | % % | |
| Philadelphia County | 77-16 | 76-14 |
| Southeast | 47-42 | 45-36 |
| Northeast | 48-40 | 56-36 |
| Central | 38-51 | 39-42 |
| Allegheny County | 53-38 | 50-43 |
| Southwest | 49-38 | 51-24 |
| Northwest | 45-43 | 49-45 |
Note: The polling numbers extracted from the October 2000 Keystone Poll are based on relatively small cell size; Nevertheless, we use them in this analysis to illustrate a general pattern.
By:
G. Terry Madonna, Director
Center for Politics & Public Affairs
Millersville University
Berwood Yost, Director
Center for Opinion Research
Millersville University
