Keystone Poll (August 16-21, 1996)

Pennsylvania Statewide Poll

EMBARGOED UNTIL 9:00 AM, AUGUST 23

Dole Makes Inroads in Keystone State, Clinton Still Leads

Last month, Bill Clinton held a 24 point lead over Bob Dole, but the latest Keystone Poll shows that Dole has cut into the President's lead. In the latest Keystone Poll, Clinton holds a 14 point lead over Dole, 51% to 37%. In July, Clinton led Dole 56% to 32%. Dole's increased support can be attributed to a better showing among Republican identifiers, including Republican leaning voters. Dole's support also includes a better showing among women voters and among those who are earn above $75,000 per year. In the July Keystone Poll, Dole trailed the President among female voters, 59% to 28%, and also trailed among those voters who live in households that earn more than $75,000 per year, 53% to 36%. At the present, Dole has improved his showing among female voters; he trails 52% to 34%, and now leads among householders whose incomes exceed $75,000 per year, 64% to 33%.

Ross Perot

With Ross Perot in the contest, President Clinton continues to hold his edge over Dole (45% to 34%) with Perot receiving the support of ten percent of the voters. Perot's share of the vote today is less than the 16 percent he received in the April Keystone Poll, and below the 18 percent of the vote he received from Pennsylvania's voters in the 1992 Presidential election.

Kemp as Vice President

Almost one in four voters (23%) say they are more likely to vote for Bob Dole because of his choice of Jack Kemp as his running mate. Only 7 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for Dole because of Kemp. But nearly three in four voters say his selection makes no difference in their support.

The Republican Convention

Just over one in two (52%) Pennsylvanians say they watched at least some of the Republican convention. About one in seven (15%) watched the convention one evening, and another one in seven (13%) said they watched two nights of the convention.

***SURVEY ITEMS AND FREQUENCIES FOLLOW***

If the 1996 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Bob Dole, the Republican, and Bill Clinton, the Democrat, would you vote for:

  4/95 9/95 2/96 4/96 7/96 8/96 Bob Dole    45%  40%  33%  34%  32%  37% Bill Clinton   41%  42%  47%  51%  56%  51% Don't Know 14%  18%  20%  16%  11%  12%

If the 1996 election for President were being held today and the candidates were: Bob Dole, the Republican, Bill Clinton, the Democrat, and Ross Perot for the Reform Party, would you vote for Bob Dole, Bill Clinton, or Ross Perot?

  4/96 8/96 Clinton   41%  45% Dole   27%  34% Perot 16%  10% Don't Know   15%  11%

Does Bob Dole's selection of Jack Kemp as his Vice-Presidential running mate make you more likely or less likely to vote for Bob Dole, or won't it make a difference in your vote?

23%  More Likely  7%  Less Likely 70%  No Difference

The Republican Party held its convention this week in San Diego, California. Did you watch any of the convention coverage?

53%  Yes 47%  No

How many days did you watch?

48%  None 15%  One day 13%  Two days 10%  Three days 14%  Four days

The Keystone Poll is conducted by the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University for KYW-TV3, Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Harrisburg Patriot. The telephone survey of 817 Pennsylvanians was conducted February 5 - March 8, 1998, among a random sample of adults living in the state. The sample included 564 registered voters. The sample error for the total sample is plus or minus 3.4%, but is larger for subgroups. The survey data were weighted by age and gender to reflect the known distribution of these variables in the state.

Any use of this survey must indicate that it was conducted at Millersville University.