Franklin & Marshall College Franklin & Marshall College

Center for Opinion Research

Keystone Poll (Oct. 25-28, 1996)

Pennsylvania Statewide Poll

Clinton Continues to Hold a Sizable Lead in Keystone Statep

The latest Keystone Poll of Pennsylvania voters shows that Bill Clinton continues to hold a large lead over Republican challenger Bob Dole, 48% to 36%. Support for Ross Perot remains low, as only one in fourteen voters (7%) supports his candidacy. The number of voters who support the President has remained constant since September, while the number of voters who support Bob Dole has seen a slight increase since September as Republicans have started to return to the ticket. Both candidates have increased their support among party faithful over the past month--Dole's support among partisans has increased by 10 percent (from 61% to 67%) while Clinton's has increased by 6 percent (from 72% to 76%). Dole now receives more support than Clinton among men (43% to 40%), although Clinton maintains his large lead among women (52% to 32%).

Clinton supporters say they plan to vote for the President because of his record (29%), his political ideology (21%), negative attitudes toward Bob Dole (20%), and his position on specific issues (11%). Dole supporters say that their negative opinion of the President (26%), and Bob Dole's character (17%), ideology (15%), and party affiliation (14%) are the main reasons they plan to support the Republican candidate.

The increasingly negative tone of the campaign has harmed both candidates. The President is still viewed favorably by state voters. Almost half (48%) of the state's voters have a favorable opinion of the President, which is virtually unchanged since September. However, the proportion of voters who view him unfavorably has increased from 37% to 41%. Bob Dole's unfavorable ratings have also gone up in the past month, from 44% to 49%. Only a third (34%) of the state's likely voters have a favorable opinion of Dole.

***SURVEY ITEMS AND FREQUENCIES FOLLOW***

If the presidential election were held today and the Republican candidates were Bob Dole and Jack Kemp, the Democratic candidates were Bill Clinton and Al Gore, and the Reform Party candidates were Ross Perot and Pat Choate, would you vote for:

       4/96 8/96 9/96 10/96
Clinton/Gore    41%  45%  49%  48%
Dole/Kemp     27%  34%  33%  36%
Perot/Choate    16%  10%   6%   7%
Don't Know    15%  11%  12%  10%

I'd like to ask you a few questions about some people involved in Pennsylvania politics. Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bill Clinton yet to have an opinion?

            Not
         Fav  Fav  Und    DK
       9/95    40%  38%  19%    3%
       4/96    45%  33%  19%    3%
       7/96    44%  35%  19%    3%
       9/96    47%  37%  15%    2%
       10/96   48%  41%  10%    1%

Is your opinion of Bob Dole favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bob Dole yet to have an opinion?

            Not
         Fav  Fav  Und    DK
       4/96    19%  43%  31%    8%
       7/96    23%  39%  27%   11%
       9/96    31%  44%  22%    3%
       10/96   34%  49%  15%    2%

Presidential Race: Cross Tabulations

              Presidential Horse Race

           Dole,Kemp   Clinton,   Perot,    DK
               Gore   Choate
           Row %   Row %   Row %   Row %
   Party Registration
   Republican       67%     19%    4%     11%
   Democrat        9%     76%    7%    7%
   Independent, Other     22%     42%     16%     20%

   Likelihood of Voting
   Certain to Vote      38%     48%    6%    9%
   Probably will Vote     19%     47%     15%     19%

   County of residence
   PHILADELPHIA       14%     70%    5%     11%
   NORTHEAST        34%     47%    9%    9%
   ALLEGHENY        28%     58%    3%     12%
   SOUTHWEST        39%     39%     13%     10%
   NORTHWEST        34%     51%    5%     10%
   CENTRAL        45%     38%    9%    9%
   SOUTHEAST        43%     43%    3%     11%

   Respondent Educational
    Attainment
   High School or Less    31%     48%     10%     11%
   Some College, Tech
    Degree        37%     47%    5%     11%
   College Graduate or
    Postgraduate      41%     47%    3%    9%

   Respondent ideological
    leanings
   Liberal         8%     75%    7%    9%
   Moderate         27%     56%    7%     10%
   Conservative       61%     25%    5%    9%

   Born again or
    fundamentalist
   Yes          45%     41%    5%    8%
   No           32%     51%    7%     10%

   Child in home
   Yes          40%     46%    5%     10%
   No           34%     48%    7%     10%

   Listen to talk radio
   Yes          41%     45%    4%     10%
   No           31%     50%    9%     10%

   Gun owner
   Yes          44%     36%     11%    8%
   No           32%     53%    4%     11%

   Marital Status
   Single         22%     59%     10%    9%
   Married        43%     43%    5%     10%
   Separated        13%     60%     13%     13%
   Divorced         26%     49%     14%     12%
   Widowed        33%     52%    3%     12%

   Race
   Nonwhite        8%     85%    1%    5%
   White          39%     43%    7%     11%

   Income
   Under $15,000      23%     58%     15%    5%
   $15-$30,000        31%     46%     13%     10%
   $30-40,000       33%     50%    6%     11%
   $40-50,000       37%     50%    4%    9%
   $50-75,000       42%     46%    5%    7%
   Over $75,000       52%     39%    1%    8%

   Gender
   Male         43%     40%    8%    9%
   Female         32%     52%    5%     11%

   AGERANGE
   18-24          26%     49%     13%     11%
   25-34          37%     47%     12%    3%
   35-44          39%     48%    3%    9%
   45-54          27%     53%    6%     14%
   55-64          46%     40%    5%    8%
   65 and over        38%     44%    5%     13%

The Keystone Poll is conducted by the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University for KYW-TV3, Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Harrisburg Patriot. The telephone survey was conducted October 25-28, 1996, among a random sample of adults living in Pennsylvania. Screening interviews were completed with 999 adults. Of those screened, 767 were registered to vote and 695 were determined to be likely voters. Among the 695 likely voters, 312 were Republicans, 327 were Democrats, and 56 were independents or others. The sample error for the total sample is plus or minus 3.7%, but is larger for subgroups.

Any use of this survey must indicate that it was conducted at Millersville University.