Keystone Poll (Oct. 25-28, 1996)

Pennsylvania Statewide Poll

Clinton Continues to Hold a Sizable Lead in Keystone Statep

The latest Keystone Poll of Pennsylvania voters shows that Bill Clinton continues to hold a large lead over Republican challenger Bob Dole, 48% to 36%. Support for Ross Perot remains low, as only one in fourteen voters (7%) supports his candidacy. The number of voters who support the President has remained constant since September, while the number of voters who support Bob Dole has seen a slight increase since September as Republicans have started to return to the ticket. Both candidates have increased their support among party faithful over the past month--Dole's support among partisans has increased by 10 percent (from 61% to 67%) while Clinton's has increased by 6 percent (from 72% to 76%). Dole now receives more support than Clinton among men (43% to 40%), although Clinton maintains his large lead among women (52% to 32%).

Clinton supporters say they plan to vote for the President because of his record (29%), his political ideology (21%), negative attitudes toward Bob Dole (20%), and his position on specific issues (11%). Dole supporters say that their negative opinion of the President (26%), and Bob Dole's character (17%), ideology (15%), and party affiliation (14%) are the main reasons they plan to support the Republican candidate.

The increasingly negative tone of the campaign has harmed both candidates. The President is still viewed favorably by state voters. Almost half (48%) of the state's voters have a favorable opinion of the President, which is virtually unchanged since September. However, the proportion of voters who view him unfavorably has increased from 37% to 41%. Bob Dole's unfavorable ratings have also gone up in the past month, from 44% to 49%. Only a third (34%) of the state's likely voters have a favorable opinion of Dole.

***SURVEY ITEMS AND FREQUENCIES FOLLOW***

If the presidential election were held today and the Republican candidates were Bob Dole and Jack Kemp, the Democratic candidates were Bill Clinton and Al Gore, and the Reform Party candidates were Ross Perot and Pat Choate, would you vote for:

4/96 8/96 9/96 10/96 Clinton/Gore   41%  45%  49%  48% Dole/Kemp   27%  34%  33%  36% Perot/Choate   16%  10%   6%   7% Don't Know 15%  11%  12%  10%

I'd like to ask you a few questions about some people involved in Pennsylvania politics. Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bill Clinton yet to have an opinion?

  Not Fav Fav Und    DK    9/95    40% 38% 19%    3%    4/96    45% 33% 19%    3%    7/96    44% 35% 19%    3%    9/96    47% 37% 15%    2%    10/96   48% 41% 10%    1%

Is your opinion of Bob Dole favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bob Dole yet to have an opinion?

  Not Fav Fav Und    DK    4/96    19% 43% 31%    8%    7/96    23% 39% 27%   11%    9/96    31% 44% 22%    3%    10/96   34% 49% 15%    2%


Presidential Race: Cross Tabulations

  Presidential Horse Race   Dole,Kemp   Clinton,   Perot,   DK Gore Choate Row % Row % Row % Row %    Party Registration    Republican 67%    19% 4%    11%    Democrat 9%    76% 7% 7%    Independent, Other   22%    42%    16%    20%    Likelihood of Voting    Certain to Vote   38%    48% 6% 9%    Probably will Vote   19%    47%    15%    19%    County of residence    PHILADELPHIA   14%    70% 5%    11%    NORTHEAST   34%    47% 9% 9%    ALLEGHENY   28%    58% 3%    12%    SOUTHWEST   39%    39%    13%    10%    NORTHWEST   34%    51% 5%    10%    CENTRAL 45%    38% 9% 9%    SOUTHEAST   43%    43% 3%    11%    Respondent Educational    Attainment    High School or Less 31%    48%    10%    11%    Some College, Tech    Degree   37%    47% 5%    11%    College Graduate or    Postgraduate   41%    47% 3% 9%    Respondent ideological    leanings    Liberal   8%    75% 7% 9%    Moderate    27%    56% 7%    10%    Conservative   61%    25% 5% 9%    Born again or    fundamentalist    Yes   45%    41% 5% 8%    No    32%    51% 7%    10%    Child in home    Yes   40%    46% 5%    10%    No    34%    48% 7%    10%    Listen to talk radio    Yes   41%    45% 4%    10%    No    31%    50% 9%    10%    Gun owner    Yes   44%    36%    11% 8%    No    32%    53% 4%    11%    Marital Status    Single   22%    59%    10% 9%    Married 43%    43% 5%    10%    Separated   13%    60%    13%    13%    Divorced    26%    49%    14%    12%    Widowed 33%    52% 3%    12%    Race    Nonwhite 8%    85% 1% 5%    White    39%    43% 7%    11%    Income    Under $15,000 23%    58%    15% 5%    $15-$30,000    31%    46%    13%    10%    $30-40,000 33%    50% 6%    11%    $40-50,000 37%    50% 4% 9%    $50-75,000 42%    46% 5% 7%    Over $75,000   52%    39% 1% 8%    Gender    Male 43%    40% 8% 9%    Female   32%    52% 5%    11%    AGERANGE    18-24    26%    49%    13%    11%    25-34    37%    47%    12% 3%    35-44    39%    48% 3% 9%    45-54    27%    53% 6%    14%    55-64    46%    40% 5% 8%    65 and over    38%    44% 5%    13%


The Keystone Poll is conducted by the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University for KYW-TV3, Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Harrisburg Patriot. The telephone survey was conducted October 25-28, 1996, among a random sample of adults living in Pennsylvania. Screening interviews were completed with 999 adults. Of those screened, 767 were registered to vote and 695 were determined to be likely voters. Among the 695 likely voters, 312 were Republicans, 327 were Democrats, and 56 were independents or others. The sample error for the total sample is plus or minus 3.7%, but is larger for subgroups.

Any use of this survey must indicate that it was conducted at Millersville University.