Pennsylvania's Row Offices

Little Movement in Pennsylvania's Statewide Row Offices

Little has changed over the past month in the races for Pennsylvania's row offices, Attorney General, Auditor General, and Treasurer. The current Keystone Poll shows that voters have yet to focus on the campaigns or candidates. A third (33%) of the electorate remains undecided in the Auditor General contest, but Robert Casey, Jr., the son of former governor Robert Casey, holds a sixteen point margin over State Representative Bob Nyce, 42% to 26%. In the State Treasurer's race, Barbara Hafer, the current Auditor General, holds a seven point lead, 40% to 33%, over accountant Mina Baker Knoll, who is the daughter of the current State Treasurer. These races are virtually unchanged since the September Keystone Poll. The Attorney General's race has seen more movement than the other two row office contests. State Senator Mike Fisher has increased his lead over lawyer Joe Kohn since last month, and now leads by 13 points (36% to 23%) with most (41%) voters still undecided.

As the numbers suggest, the candidates for Pennsylvania's row offices are relatively unknown to many voters. More than half the electorate does not recognize Bob Nyce (72%), Joe Kohn (52%) or Mike Fisher (50%). About a third of the electorate does not recognize Bob Casey, Jr. (38%), Mina Baker Knoll (35%), or Barbara Hafer (30%).

Pennsylvania's House of Representatives: A Toss Up

The race for control of Pennsylvania's House of Representatives has tightened since August as more voters have started choosing sides. In August, more than one in four (28%) voters were undecided about their choice in their State House race. Today, one in six (16%) voters are undecided. The percentage of Pennsylvania voters that plan to vote for the Republican House candidate in their districts has risen from 33% to 42%. Support for Democratic House candidates has risen slightly since August, from 39% to 42%.

***SURVEY ITEMS AND FREQUENCIES FOLLOW***

In the upcoming election for State Attorney General, the Republican candidate is Mike Fisher and the Democratic candidate is Joe Kohn. If the election for Attorney General were held today, would you vote for:

9/96 10/96 Mike Fisher 27% 36% Joe Kohn 20% 23% Don't Know 54% 41%

In the upcoming election for State Auditor General, the Republican candidate is Bob Nyce and the Democratic candidate is Robert Casey, Jr. If the election for Auditor General were held today, would you vote for:

9/96 10/96 Bob Nyce 27% 26% Robert Casey, Jr. 40% 42% Don't Know 34% 33%

In the upcoming election for State Treasurer, the Republican candidate is Barbara Hafer and the Democratic candidate is Mina Baker Knoll. If the election for State Treasurer were held today, would you vote for:

9/96 10/96 Barbara Hafer 40% 40% Mina Baker Knoll 34% 33% Don't Know 27% 27%

If the 1996 elections for Pennsylvania's state House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for the House in your district?

8/96 9/96 10/96 Republican 33% 39% 42% Democratic 39% 42% 42% Undecided/Don't know 28% 19% 16%

I'd like to ask you a few questions about some people involved in Pennsylvania politics. Is your opinion of ... favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about ... yet to have an opinion?

Not Fav Fav Und DK Bob Nyce 7% 8% 13% 72% Bob Casey, Jr. 23% 16% 22% 38% Mina Baker Knoll 23% 21% 21% 35% Barbara Hafer 30% 18% 22% 30% Joe Kohn11% 15% 22% 52% Mike Fisher 19% 10% 22% 50%

All in all, do you think things in Pennsylvania are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

4/95 9/95 2/96 7/96 9/96 10/96 Right Direction 52% 47% 49% 41% 49% 49% Wrong Track 32% 36% 36% 41% 34% 31% Don't Know 17% 17% 15% 18% 17% 21%

What do you think is the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today?

9/96 10/96 Drugs 5% 5% Taxes 9% 9% Crime 6% 9% Jobs/Economy 32% 30% Roads 4% 6% Govt Dissatisfaction 4% 4% Education 12% 11% Abortion 1% 1% Welfare 7% 5% Health Care 1% 3% Don't Know 7% 9%


Row Office and State House Cross Tabulations

Attorney General Vote Choice Fisher KohnDK Row % Row % Row % Party Registration Republican 57%10%34% Democrat 17%36%48% Independent, Other 30%24%46% Likelihood of Voting Certain to Vote 37%24%40% Probably will Vote 26%16%57% County of residence PHILADELPHIA 19%31%50% NORTHEAST 31%26%43% ALLEGHENY 36%29%35% SOUTHWEST 44%18%38% NORTHWEST 38%16%46% CENTRAL 40%19%41% SOUTHEAST 37%24%39% Respondent Educational Attainment High School or Less 34%25%41% Some College, Tech Degree 40%16%43% College Graduate or Postgraduate 35%25%40% Respondent ideological leanings Liberal 18%45%37% Moderate 27%24%49% Conservative 57%13%31% Born again or fundamentalist Yes 43%18%39% No 32%25%43% Veteran Yes 45%25%30% No 33%22%44% Child in home Yes 36%19%45% No 35%25%40% Listen to talk radio Yes 41%22%37% No 31%24%45% Gun owner Yes 45%19%36% No 32%24%43% Marital Status Single 27%27%45% Married 39%20%41% Separated 7%40%53% Divorced 44%21%35% Widowed 33%26%41% Race Nonwhite 16%38%46% White 38%21%41% Income Under $15,000 25%18%58% $15-$30,000 34%27%39% $30-40,000 36%25%39% $40-50,000 35%21%44% $50-75,000 41%21%39% Over $75,000 41%22%37% Gender Male 41%22%37% Female 32%23%45% AGERANGE 18-24 25%23%52% 25-34 30%16%54% 35-44 39%21%39% 45-54 35%24%41% 55-64 40%25%35% 65 and over 40%26%34%


Auditor General Vote Choice Nyce Casey DK Row % Row % Row % Party Registration Republican 45%23%31% Democrat 9%60%31% Independent, Other 19%37%44% Likelihood of Voting Certain to Vote 27%42%31% Probably will Vote 18%34%48% County of residence PHILADELPHIA 11%48%41% NORTHEAST 27%42%31% ALLEGHENY 20%42%38% SOUTHWEST 22%44%33% NORTHWEST 33%33%34% CENTRAL 27%42%32% SOUTHEAST 37%36%27% Respondent Educational Attainment High School or Less 24%49%27% Some College, Tech Degree 26%36%38% College Graduate or Postgraduate 28%36%36% Respondent ideological leanings Liberal 13%57%30% Moderate 19%45%36% Conservative 43%30%27% Born again or fundamentalist Yes 30%40%30% No 25%42%33% Veteran Yes 37%39%24% No 23%42%34% Child in home Yes 27%40%33% No 25%42%32% Listen to talk radio Yes 31%41%27% No 22%42%36% Gun owner Yes 33%37%31% No 23%44%33% Marital Status Single 18%49%33% Married 29%38%32% Separated 13%60%27% Divorced 26%33%42% Widowed 25%46%29% Race Nonwhite 11%53%36% White 28%40%32% Income Under $15,000 10%53%38% $15-$30,000 24%49%27% $30-40,000 27%38%35% $40-50,000 29%35%36% $50-75,000 31%44%25% Over $75,000 27%36%37% Gender Male 30%39%30% Female 23%43%34% AGERANGE 18-24 12%48%40% 25-34 26%39%34% 35-44 23%39%38% 45-54 22%46%32% 55-64 37%35%28% 65 and over 32%42%26%


State Treasurer Vote Choice Hafer Knoll DK Row % Row % Row % Party Registration Republican 58%19%22% Democrat 23%49%28% Independent, Other 35%19%46% Likelihood of Voting Certain to Vote 41%34%25% Probably will Vote 30%23%48% County of residence PHILADELPHIA 16%49%35% NORTHEAST 43%34%23% ALLEGHENY 46%37%18% SOUTHWEST 33%39%28% NORTHWEST 46%34%20% CENTRAL 47%25%28% SOUTHEAST 42%28%30% Respondent Educational Attainment High School or Less 35%40%25% Some College, Tech Degree 47%23%30% College Graduate or Postgraduate 41%33%26% Respondent ideological leanings Liberal 31%44%25% Moderate 30%38%32% Conservative 56%22%23% Born again or fundamentalist Yes 45%29%26% No 37%35%27% Veteran Yes 48%30%21% No 38%34%28% Child in home Yes 37%34%29% No 41%33%26% Listen to talk radio Yes 47%29%24% No 34%36%30% Gun owner Yes 40%32%28% No 40%34%26% Marital Status Single 31%36%33% Married 42%31%27% Separated 20%47%33% Divorced 49%26%26% Widowed 46%44%10% Race Nonwhite 11%56%33% White 43%31%26% Income Under $15,000 40%35%25% $15-$30,000 35%40%24% $30-40,000 43%32%25% $40-50,000 42%31%27% $50-75,000 47%30%23% Over $75,000 39%29%33% Gender Male 43%31%26% Female 38%35%28% AGERANGE 18-24 25%38%37% 25-34 37%31%31% 35-44 36%35%30% 45-54 41%35%25% 55-64 47%28%25% 65 and over 48%33%19%


Vote in State House of Representatives Republican Democratic DK Row % Row % Row % Party Registration Republican 78% 8%14% Democrat 11%75%14% Independent, Other 27%33%40% Likelihood of Voting Certain to Vote 43%42%15% Probably will Vote 36%38%26% County of residence PHILADELPHIA 22%63%16% NORTHEAST 35%50%15% ALLEGHENY 33%45%22% SOUTHWEST 36%46%18% NORTHWEST 43%43%15% CENTRAL 53%33%14% SOUTHEAST 53%30%17% Respondent Educational Attainment High School or Less 38%48%14% Some College, Tech Degree 45%38%17% College Graduate or Postgraduate 46%37%17% Respondent ideological leanings Liberal 20%66%14% Moderate 33%48%18% Conservative 66%22%12% Born again or fundamentalist Yes 53%37% 9% No 38%44%18% Veteran Yes 52%38%11% No 40%42%17% Child in home Yes 46%37%18% No 41%44%15% Listen to talk radio Yes 47%39%14% No 39%44%17% Gun owner Yes 50%36%14% No 38%44%17% Marital Status Single 33%51%16% Married 46%37%17% Separated 20%60%20% Divorced 40%44%16% Widowed 43%46%10% Race Nonwhite 18%74% 8% White 45%38%17% Income Under $15,000 30%60%10% $15-$30,000 38%51%11% $30-40,000 47%37%16% $40-50,000 48%38%13% $50-75,000 43%34%23% Over $75,000 51%35%14% Gender Male 49%38%13% Female 38%44%18% AGERANGE 18-24 38%45%17% 25-34 48%36%15% 35-44 41%40%18% 45-54 32%49%18% 55-64 53%33%14% 65 and over 45%43%12%


The Keystone Poll is conducted by the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University for KYW-TV3, Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Harrisburg Patriot. The telephone survey was conducted October 25-28, 1996, among a random sample of adults living in Pennsylvania. Screening interviews were completed with 999 adults. Of those screened, 767 were registered to vote and 695 were determined to be likely voters. Among the 695 likely voters, 312 were Republicans, 327 were Democrats, and 56 were independents or others. The sample error for the total sample is plus or minus 3.7%, but is larger for subgroups.

Any use of this survey must indicate that it was conducted at Millersville University.