Franklin & Marshall College Franklin & Marshall College

Center for Opinion Research

Keystone Poll (Sept. 25-28, 1998)

Pennsylvania Statewide Poll

Little Movement in Statewide Races

The latest Keystone Poll of registered Pennsylvania voters finds incumbent Governor Tom Ridge and
incumbent U.S. Senator Arlen Specter maintaining large leads over their Democratic challengers. Voter
sentiment in these races remains virtually unchanged since the March and July Keystone Polls. Once
again, the Keystone Poll finds Ridge and Specter benefitting from their personal popularity, strong job
approval ratings, and opponents who are largely unknown to the state's voters. Their job performance is
bouyed by voter belief that the state is headed in the right direction, with 67% indicating the state is on
the right track.

 Voters of the state have highly favorable opinions of both Ridge (62%) and Specter (57%), whose
favorable ratings are identical to their ratings in the July Keystone Poll. The Democratic challengers,
Ivan Itkin for governor and Bill Lloyd for U.S. Senate, remain unknown by four out of every five
registered voters in the state. Constitutional Party candidate Peg Luksik, unkown by three in four voters
(72%), has better name recognition than Itkin or Lloyd.

 Voters give Ridge and Specter high marks on how they've done their jobs in office. Three in five (63%)
voters say Ridge is doing an 'excellent' or 'good' job as governor, while more than half (54%) say the
same about Specter's performance as U.S. Senator.

 Tom Ridge continues to lead substantially over Ivan Itkin and Peg Luksik. Ridge is the choice of 56% of
the state's voters, compared to 17% for Itkin and 9% for Luksik. Ridge has consistently maintained a big
margin throughout the year. Ridge's advantage is so substantial that he leads among every major
demographic group of voters, including Democrats. If the election were held today, Ridge would carry
every region of the state, even Philadelphia. Ridge maintains his advantage among likely voters, probable
voters, and even those who are likely not to vote.

Arlen Specter, too, continues to have a big lead over his opponent, Bill Lloyd, 52% to 27%. Specter leads
among most demographic groups with the exception of Democratic voters, liberals, and Philadelphians.
Importantly, Specter holds a 48% to 29% lead over Lloyd among female voters. Among self-identified
conservative voters, Specter wins 61% to 17%. There are differences in voter preference depending
upon one's likelihood of voting. Among certain voters, Specter is ahead 56% to 25%. Among probable
voters, his margin shrinks a bit to 44% to 31%.

 ***SURVEY ITEMS AND FREQUENCIES FOLLOW***

All in all, do you think things in Pennsylvania are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel
that things are off on the wrong track?
 
 
   4/95   9/95   2/96    7/96   3/98    7/98    9/98
 Right Direction    52%   47%   49%   41%   65%   60%   67%
 Wrong Track   32%   36%   36%   41%   24%   26%   15%
 Don't Know 17%   17%   15%   18%   11%   14%   18%


I'd like to ask you a few questions about some people involved in Pennsylvania politics. Is your
opinion of ... favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about ... yet to have
an opinion?


Not Fav   Fav    Und    DK
 Tom Ridge 62% 17%   15% 6%
 Arlen Specter    57% 17%   19% 7%
 Peg Luksik 13%    6% 9%   72%
 Ivan Itkin   6% 4%   10%   80%
 Bill Lloyd   4% 2% 7%   87%
 

If the 1998 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tom Ridge the
Republican, Ivan Itkin the Democrat, and Peg Luksik the Constitutional candidate, who would you
vote for?

  3/98   7/98   9/98
 Tom Ridge    56%   60%   56%
 Ivan Itkin   14%   14%   17%
 Peg Luksik 8% 7% 9%
 Don't Know 22% 19%   18%
 

If the 1998 election for Pennsylvania's United State's Senator were being held today and the
candidates were Arlen Specter, the Republican, and Bill Lloyd, the Democrat, who would you vote
for?


3/98   7/98   9/98
 Arlen Specter    54%   56%   52%
 Bill Lloyd    22%    26% 17%
 Don't Know   23%   18%   21%
 

Arlen Specter

Is your opinion of ARLEN SPECTER favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard
enough about Arlen Specter yet to have an opinion?
 
   Not Fav   Fav   Und   DK
 
04/92 55%    28%   17%   ---
10/92 34%    30%   26%   7%
04/95 32%    31%   23% 14%
10/97 52%    20%   18% 10%
03/98 53%    27%   15%   5%
07/98 57%    19%   15%   9%
09/98 57%    17%   19%   7%

How would you rate the way ARLEN SPECTER is handling his job as United States Senator? Would
you say he is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job?


Exc    Good   Fair   Poor   DK
 10/91    11%   39%   41%    9% ---
 04/92   5%   33%   44%   12%   6%
 10/97    12%   41%   33% 6%   7%
 07/98    10%   44%   31% 9%   6%
 09/98   7%   47%   34% 6%   6%

 Tom Ridge

Is your opinion of TOM RIDGE favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about
Tom Ridge yet to have an opinion?

Not Fav   Fav   Und   DK
 10/94    32%   23%   29%   16%
 04/95    45%    6%    26%   22%
 09/95    45%    7%    24%   25%
 04/96    36%   25%   28%   12%
 07/96    35%   26%   27%   13%
 10/97    53%   19%   20% 8%
 03/98    59%   21%   14% 6%
 07/98    62%   19%   14% 6%
 09/98    62%   17%   15% 6%

How would you rate the way Tom Ridge is handling his job as Governor? Would you say he is doing
an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job?
 
Exc   Good   Fair   Poor   DK
 04/95    7%    46%   24%   2%   21%
 09/95   11%   50%   27%   3%   10%
 04/96 4%   40%   38% 12%    7%
 06/96 6%   41%   31% 15%    6%
 10/97   14%   43%   28%   12%   5%
 07/98   12%   54%   24% 7%   4%
 09/98   15%   48%   31% 4%   2%

Challengers

I'd like to ask you a few questions about some people involved in Pennsylvania politics. Is your
opinion of ... favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about ... yet to have
an opinion?

Peg Luksik

   Not Fav   Fav   Und    DK
 10/97    4%    5%   13%   77%
 03/98 11%    4% 6%   79%
 07/98 11%    4% 8%   76%
 09/98 13%    6% 9%   72%
 
 Ivan Itkin

  Not Fav Fav   Und    DK
 10/97   4%   2%   11%   83%
 03/98   5%   2% 7%   87%
 07/98   8%   6% 7%   79%
 09/98   6%   4%   10%   80%
 
 Bill Lloyd
 
   Not Fav   Fav    Und   DK
 03/98   5%    1%    6%   87%
 07/98   5%    2%    5%   88%
 09/98   4%    2%    7%   87%

 Generic Ballot, State House

If the 1998 elections for Pennsylvania's state House of Representatives were being held today, would
you vote for the Democratic party's candidate, the Republican party's candidate, or does it  depend on
who the candidate is for each party?
 
7/98    9/98
 Democrat    28%    15%
 Republican 28%    14%
 Depends on candidate  38%    69%
 Don't Know 6%   2%

A cautionary note: It is worth noting that the national generic ballot test normally overstates Democratic
support in United States House races--and this same tendency may well exist in Pennsylvania. State
House districts are decided by the votes cast within each district, making it possible for one party to
receive more aggregate total votes, yet not necessarily increase the total number of seats held by that
party in the state legislature. That is, counting the aggregate vote smooths over the electoral margins that
appear in each district.

Any use of this survey must indicate that it was conducted at Millersville University.

View Crosstabs for Selected Questions
 
The Keystone Poll is conducted by the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University
for KYW-TV3, Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Harrisburg Patriot. The telephone
survey was conducted September 25 - September 29, 1998, among a random sample of adults
Pennsylvanians. Interviews were conducted with 629 adult Pennsylvanians, of which 449 were
registered (218 D; 190 R, 36 Others). Sample error for registered voters is 4.6%. The poll was directed
by G. Terry Madonna, data analysis and quantitative and methodological work were done by Berwood
Yost. A statement relative to sample design and methodology is available upon request. Sample was
weighted to reflect voter registration.


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