Franklin & Marshall College Franklin & Marshall College

Center for Opinion Research

Keystone Poll (Sept. 28-30, 1996)

Pennsylvania Statewide Poll

Clinton Still Holds Sizable Lead in Keystone State

The latest Keystone Poll of Pennsylvania voters shows that Bill Clinton continues to hold a large lead over his Republican challenger, Bob Dole, 49% to 33%. Support for Ross Perot continues to erode, as only one in twenty voters now (6%) supports his candidacy. Clinton's margin is about what it was one month ago, when he led Dole 45% to 34%. As in earlier polls, Clinton holds a substantial lead among women, 52% to 30%.

The President is still viewed favorably by state voters. Almost half (47%) of the state's voters have a favorable opinion of the President, while 37% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Bob Dole continues to be viewed more unfavorably (44%) than favorably (31%) by the state's voters, although the percentage of voters who have a favorable impression of the candidate has risen since August, when only 23% of the voters felt favorably toward him.

***SURVEY ITEMS AND FREQUENCIES FOLLOW***

If the presidential election were held today and the Republican candidates were Bob Dole and Jack Kemp, the Democratic candidates were Bill Clinton and Al Gore, and the Reform Party candidates were Ross Perot and Pat Choate, would you vote for:

       4/96 8/96 9/96
Clinton/Gore    41%  45%  49%
Dole/Kemp     27%  34%  33%
Perot/Choate    16%  10%   6%
Don't Know    15%  11%  12%

I'd like to ask you a few questions about some people involved in Pennsylvania politics. Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bill Clinton yet to have an opinion?

            Not
         Fav  Fav  Und    DK
       9/95    40%  38%  19%    3%
       4/96    45%  33%  19%    3%
       7/96    44%  35%  19%    3%
       9/96    47%  37%  15%    2%

Is your opinion of Bob Dole favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bob Dole yet to have an opinion?

            Not
         Fav  Fav  Und    DK
       4/96    19%  43%  31%    8%
       7/96    23%  39%  27%   11%
       9/96    31%  44%  22%    3%

The Keystone Poll is conducted by the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University for KYW-TV3, Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Harrisburg Patriot. The telephone survey was conducted September 28-30, 1996, among a random sample of adult Pennsylvanians. A total of 626 registered voters in Pennsylvania were interviewed (265 R; 310 D; 39 I and others). The sample error for the sample of voters is plus or minus 3.9%, but is larger for subgroups. The survey was weighted to reflect the known distribution of registered voters in the state.

Any use of this survey must indicate that it was conducted at Millersville University.