Alyssa Mowitz '09, Government
Aggregate-Level Effects on Presidential Voter Turnout
From a childhood experiencing the grassroots Iowa caucuses to the excitement of two campus visits in one week by presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama, Alyssa Mowitz '09 always manages to find herself in the thick of the political action.
Growing up in Iowa, Mowitz learned firsthand about participatory democracy. "I remember going to the Iowa caucus as a young child and playing while my parents caucused. Iowa is an absolutely wonderful place if you're young and interested in politics, since we're first in the national nominating process."
In 2004, when Mowitz was old enough to vote for the first time, her father encouraged her to choose a candidate and volunteer on a campaign for a few hours each week. That advice led to an internship with the Kerry General Election Campaign during her senior year. "I got to interact with volunteers, run absentee ballot messenger trainings and organize school outreach efforts. I also worked on ‘Get Out the Vote' drives, so I wore many hats."
At Franklin & Marshall, Mowitz has supplemented her real-world experiences with academic exploration of political campaigns, and the upcoming presidential election provided the perfect research "laboratory" for her Hackman project. Working in conjunction with Associate Professor Stephen Medvic of the Government department, Mowitz studied national factors that affect voter turnout. They analyzed national data for all presidential years from 1948 onward, including a case study of the 2004 election turnout for all 50 states.
The conclusions of her research were surprising to her. While she had expected economic factors would play a major role in voter turnout, it didn't turn out to have a large effect. "I thought that if you're having trouble putting food on the table or you've lost your job, that can affect voters either way. It either sends them to the polls or keeps them away. But it just didn't turn out that way. So, I learned that you have to adapt to what the data shows you." They found that, on the national level, the only variable that was a strong predictor of turnout was interest in the election.
At the state level, the greatest predictor of voter turnout-by far-is whether or not the state is considered a battleground state. The recent attention paid to Franklin & Marshall by both candidates testifies to the relevance of Pennsylvania in the upcoming election.
"The visits by Senators Obama and McCain make it clear that F&M, with its incredible Government department, F&M poll and politically active student body is now a staple stop on the presidential campaign trail," Mowitz said. "It makes my research all the more pertinent and helps me to see that what I've learned has real-world implications."
