Pennsylvania Statewide Poll: Governor's Race

Prepared by:

Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Director
Center for Politics & Public Affairs
Millersville University

Mr. Berwood A. Yost, Director
Center for Opinion Research
Head Methodologist
Millersville University

The Keystone Poll is conducted by the Center for Politics & Public Affairs at Millersville University for Fox News, Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Harrisburg Patriot.  The telephone survey was conducted April 5 - 8, 2001, among a random sample of 499 registered voters. The sample contained 199 Republicans, 228 Democrats, and 72 Independents and Others. The sample error for the total sample is plus or minus 4.4%. As with all opinion surveys, these results are also subject to non-sampling errors.  Non-sampling errors are best defined as errors that arise from interviewing, questionnaire design, and data analysis.  The poll was directed by Dr. G. Terry Madonna.  Data analysis and quantitative and methodological work were done by Mr. Berwood Yost.  A statement relative to sample design and methodology is available upon request.

Any use of this survey must indicate that it was conducted at Millersville University.


>Q1< Some people are registered to vote and many others are not. Are you currently registered to vote at your present address?

100% Yes

>Q2< Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or something else?

41% Republican
47% Democrat
  9% Independent
  2% Other

Id like to ask you a few questions about some people involved in politics today.   Is your opinion of [INSERT NAME] favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or havent you heard enough about [INSERT NAME] to have an opinion?

  Favorable Unfavorable Undecided Haven't Heard Don't Know
Mike Fisher 20% 5% 17% 47% 11%
Barbara Hafer 35% 10% 20% 27% 9%
Jeff Piccolla 5% 2% 7% 69% 17%
Robert Casey Jr. 33% 9% 22% 29% 7%
Ed Rendell 29% 7% 11% 42% 10%
Tom Ridge 63% 16% 15% 5% 2%

 >9< If the Democratic primary election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Robert Casey, Jr. and Ed Rendell, would you vote for:

31% Ed Rendell
37% Robert Casey, Jr.
32% Do not know

>Q10< If the Republican primary election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Mike Fisher, Barbara Hafer, and Jeff Piccola, would you vote for:

  5% Jeff Piccola
22% Barbara Hafer
22% Mike Fisher
51% Do not know

>Q11< In politics, as of today, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?

22% Strong Republican
17% Not Very Strong Republican
  7% Lean Republican
  8% Independent
  7% Lean Democrat
15% Not Very Strong Democrat
21% Strong Democrat
  4% Do not know

>Q12< What do you think is the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today?

22% Education
17% Unemployment, Economy
12% Taxes
  9% Dont know
  7% Crime, drugs
  6% Other
  5% Health care
  4% Government
  4% Roads
  3% Welfare
  3% Environment
  2% Population, sprawl
  2% Personal Finances
  1% Transportation
  1% Elderly
  1% School safety
  1% Business

>Q13< What do you think is the most important problem facing you and your family today?

18% Taxes
17% Personal Finances
12% Health care
12% Unemployment, Economy
  8% Dont know
  7% Education
  7% Nothing
  3% Other
  3% Crime, Drugs
  3% Environment
  3% Elderly
  1% Government
  1% Gas, Utility Prices
  1% Population, sprawl
  1% Racism
  1% Values
  1% Child care
  1% School safety

Next, as I read you some problem areas, please tell me how you think each is affecting your local community today.  Do you think the problem of is about the same as it has been, that your community is making progress in this area, or that your community is losing ground.

  About the Same Making Progress Losing Ground Don't Know
Crime 42% 26% 29% 3%
Drugs 28% 16% 46% 10%
The quality of public eduction 25% 28% 39% 8%
Conflict among racial or ethnic groups 50% 23% 14% 13%
The availaibility of good paying jobs 23% 22% 46% 9%
Planning and managing growth in and around your area 23% 35% 34% 9%
The way the health care system is working 26% 14% 54% 7%

>CNTY< What is the name of the county you live in?

  9% Philadelphia
13% Northeast
  9% Allegheny
10% Southwest
11% Northwest
31% Central
16% Southeast

>AGE< What was your AGE on your last birthday?

  6% 18 24
12% 25 34
23% 35 44
24% 45 54
14% 55 64
22% Over 65
>EDUC< What was the last grade level of schooling you have completed?
  4% Non high school graduate
33% High school graduate
17% Some college
  9% Two-year or tech degree
23% Four year college degree
15% Postgraduate degree

>MAR< What is your CURRENT marital status?
15% Single, Never Married
65% Married
  3% Separated
  9% Divorced
  9% Widow, Widower
  1% Do not know

>IDEO< Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative?

19% Liberal
36% Moderate
35% Conservative
  9% Do not know

>REL< Do you consider yourself to be Catholic, Protestant, Jewish or something else?

36% Catholic
40% Protestant
  2% Jewish
21% Something Else
  2% Do not know

>BAC< Do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist?

32% Yes
56% No
12% Do not know

>VET< Are you a military veteran?

16% Yes
84% No

>UNI< Do you or anyone in your household belong to a labor union?

25% Yes
74% No
  1% Do not know

>TALK< Are you a frequent listener to political talk shows?

40% Yes
59% No
  1% Do not know

>GUN1< Are you a gun owner?

30% Yes
70% No

>GUN2< Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose creating more laws that regulate gun ownership?

41% Strongly favor
18% Somewhat favor
14% Somewhat oppose
22% Strongly oppose
  6% Do not know

>ABRT< Do you think that abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?
25% Legal under any circumstances
53% Legal under certain circumstances
18% Illegal in all circumstances
   3% Do not know

>RACE< Which of the following categories best describes your racial background?

93% White
   4% Black
 <1% Asian or Pacific Islander
 <1% American Indian or Alaskan Native
3% Other

 >INC1< And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above or below $30,000 per year?

  5% Under $15,000
21% $15-$30,000
18% $30-40,000
13% $40-50,000
16% $50-75,000
 20% Over $75,000
   7% Do not know

>DONE< Note Gender of respondent

39% Male
61% Female