8/04/2016 Peter Durantine

F&M Poll: Clinton Leads Trump in Pennsylvania by Double Digits

Among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent, according to the latest Franklin & Marshall College Poll.

F&M Poll Director Terry Madonna said he was not surprised by the results, which were compiled during arguably the worst weekend for Trump since the campaign began. The GOP candidate has faced a barrage of criticism for his personal attacks.

"He's been defending himself," Madonna said. "Plus, she had a good convention."

The poll was conducted from July 29 to Aug. 1 following the Republican and Democratic conventions in July, which raises the question of whether the poll numbers only reflect a bounce for Clinton because of the Democratic National Convention.

"We'll have to see if this is a high point and the race goes back to an equilibrium or if she sustains it," said F&M Poll Chief Methodologist Berwood Yost.

Among registered voters, Clinton's lead is larger, 48 percent to Trump's 35 percent, according to the poll. More registered Democrats support Clinton, 78 percent, than registered Republicans support Trump, 69 percent.  

"She's running a true general-election campaign," Madonna said. "He hasn't made the transition to the general election."

Clinton appeared to have benefited from the Democratic convention more than Trump did the GOP event, with 62 percent of those who watched the broadcast from Philadelphia more likely to vote for Clinton and 40 percent of those who viewed the Cleveland convention more likely to vote for Trump.

While Trump has a significant advantage among whites with a high-school degree, 53 percent to 31 percent, Clinton has a similar advantage among college-educated whites, 58 percent to 28 percent. 

The poll showed Trump with an advantage among white men, 45 percent to 35 percent, but Clinton leads among white women, 57 percent to 29 percent.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Katie McGinty has among likely voters a single digit lead over Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, 39 percent to 38 percent. Among registered voters, McGinty's lead expands, 38 percent to 30 percent. 

Among the 661 registered voters surveyed for the poll, there were 321 Democrats, 257 Republicans and 83 independents. The poll had a margin of error plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

The 25-year-old Franklin & Marshall College Poll is conducted under the direction of Madonna; Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research; and Project Manager Jacqueline Redman. It is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV in Lancaster, Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV in Pittsburgh, WPVI-TV6/ABC Philadelphia, Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg PennLive/The Patriot News, Lancaster Newspapers/Lancaster Online, and the Reading Eagle.

Story 9/22/2021

A New Director at F&M’s Center for Politics and Public...

Franklin & Marshall Government Professor Stephen Medvic was named the new director of the College’s...

Read More
Story 9/20/2021

Afghanistan to Italy: A Young Migrant’s Odyssey

Fabio Geda, author of the acclaimed 2010 novel, “In the Sea There are Crocodiles,” and his book's...

Read More
Story 9/17/2021

Election Reform Means Doing the Math

Comm Hour speaker: “Probably every system of proportional representation in the world uses a...

Read More